FHFA: U.S. House Prices Rise 1.1 Percent in Second Quarter 2018

U.S. house prices rose 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2018 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI). House prices rose 6.5 percent from the second quarter of 2017 to the second quarter of 2018. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for June was up 0.2 percent from May.

The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

“Home prices rose in the second quarter but at a slower pace than we have seen for the past four years,” said Dr. William Doerner, Supervisory Economist. “Mortgage rates have increased by more than half a percentage point over the first six months of the year. Rates are still inexpensive from a historical standpoint, but their bump-up appears to have gently pressed the brakes on house price increases.”

See video of highlights for the second quarter featuring Dr. Doerner.

Significant Findings

  • Home prices rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between the second quarter of 2017 and the second quarter of 2018. The top five areas in annual appreciation were: 1) Nevada 17.0 percent; 2) Idaho 13.0 percent; 3) District of Columbia 11.8 percent; 4) Utah 11.3 percent; and 5) Washington 11.0 percent. The states showing the smallest annual appreciation were: 1) North Dakota 2.1 percent; 2) Louisiana 2.3 percent; 3) West Virginia 2.3 percent; 4) Connecticut 2.4 percent; and 5) Alaska 2.6 percent.
  • Home prices rose in 99 of the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. over the last four quarters. Annual price increases were greatest in Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, where prices increased by 18.8 percent. Prices were weakest in El Paso, TX, where they fell by 0.03 percent.
  • Of the nine census divisions, the Mountain division experienced the strongest four-quarter appreciation, posting a 9.5 percent gain between the second quarters of 2017 and 2018 and a 1.9 percent increase in the second quarter of 2018. The Pacific division, which often records the strongest numbers in the country, only had a quarterly appreciation of 0.6 percent, its slowest quarterly increase since 2011. Annual house price appreciation was weakest in the West South Central division, where prices rose 5.0 percent between the second quarters of 2017 and 2018.

Tables and graphs showing home price statistics for metropolitan areas, states, census divisions, and the U.S. as a whole are included on the following pages.

Highlights Article: Price Indexes for Manufactured Homes

This quarter’s release includes a Highlights article that discusses a set of newly constructed house price indexes for manufactured homes. These indexes, which are experimental in nature, could provide useful information to market observers and policy makers engaged in analyzing affordable housing issues. Details about the new measures can be found on pages 23-27.

Other Price Indexes

Most statistics in the quarterly house price index report reference price changes computed by FHFA’s basic “purchase-only” HPI. In some cases, however, the reported statistics reference alternative price measures. FHFA publishes—and makes available for download—three additional house price indexes beyond the basic “purchase-only” series. Although they use the same general methodology, the three alternatives rely on slightly different datasets as follows:

  • “Distress-Free” house price index. Sales of bank-owned properties and short sales are removed from the purchase-only dataset prior to estimation of the index.
  • “Expanded-Data” house price index. Sales price information sourced from county recorder offices and from FHA-backed mortgages are added to the purchase-only data sample. This index is used annually to adjust the maximum conforming loan limits, which dictate the dollar amount of loans that can be acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
  • “All-Transactions” house price index. Appraisal values from refinance mortgages are added to the purchase-only data sample.

Data constraints preclude the production of all types of indexes for every geographic area, but multiple index types are generally available. For individual states, for instance, three types of indexes are available. The various indexes tend to correlate closely over the long-term, but short-term differences can be significant.

Background

FHFA’s HPI tracks changes in home values for individual properties owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac over the past 43 years using more than eight million repeat transactions. The “repeat-transactions” methodology constructs index estimates by statistically evaluating price appreciation (or depreciation) for homes with multiple values over time. See this video explaining the basic methodology behind the FHFA HPI.

Note 

  • The next monthly HPI report (including data through July 2018) will be released September 25, 2018 and the next quarterly HPI report (including data for the third quarter of 2018) will be released November 27, 2018.
  • Future HPI release dates for 2018 and 2019 are available at https://www.fhfa.gov/hpi.
  • Follow @FHFA on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube for more HPI news.
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